Egypt Has Shifted The Currently Pressing Priorities To African & Domestic Issues.

Egypt Has Shifted The Currently Pressing Priorities To African & Domestic Issues. *** The Southerners In Sudan Will On Jan. 9 Vote For Independence,But Will Keep A Partnership With The North Over Their Crude Oil ExportsAnd Will Help Khartoum In Handling Its $34Bn External Debt Problem,Through Formulae Yet To Be Worked Out - What Worries Egypt Most Is TheDarfur Conflict Which Has The Potential Of Leading To An EventualDismemberment Of The Largest Country In Africa *** Mubarak Is Advising Bashir To Be Extremely Careful In HisTackling Of The Rebel Groups *** The US Is To Keep Pushing For UNSC Sanctions Against Iran,Despite Tehran's Deal With Brazil And Turkey, Plus A Fuels EmbargoWhich Could Hurt CAIRO - Two major developments have allowed the Egyptian regime ofHusni Mubarak to concentrate on African issues, primarily plannedchanges in neighbouring Sudan and the sharing of the Nile River'swaters, and on the domestic front. On the national front, the priorityis the legislative election due in November, the outcome of which willhave a direct impact on the presidential vote in September 2011. Thefirst of the major developments is a dramatic cut in US funds to promotedemocracy in Egypt, a shift which affects everything fromanti-corruption programmes to monitoring of elections. The seconddevelopment is the growing certainty that southern Sudan will secedefrom the north under a referendum set for Jan. 9, 2011. President Mubarak has effectively ended the race to choose areplacement for Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa, whose termends in May 2011, with Algeria having begun aggressively to lobby for arotation system and for its candidate to take the post (seenews21ArabLeagueMay24-10). In mid-May Mubarak told Moussa, 74, that hewill be the candidate for a third five-year term. Cairo is alreadyco-ordinating with Riyadh to ensure Arab support for the nomination.Cairo is talking with other Arab states on steps to ensure there will beno one competing with Moussa. Apart from this matter, Egypt's involvement in Arab politicsfor the time being is limited to its protracted mediation between Fatahand Hamas on the one hand and between the Fatah/PLO-led PalestinianAuthority (PA) and Israel on the other. Cairo has relegated the handlingof other Arab and regional affairs to Riyadh, with Saudi Arabia leadingthe Sunni front in the Muslim world. Washington's cut of aid to Egyptian democracy promotersamounting to around 50% have drawn accusations that the Obamaadministration is easing off reform pressure on Mubarak's regime toensure its support on Middle East policy, including the peace processwith Israel. Ahmad Sameh, head of a Cairo-based organisation which in2005 used US funds to monitor Egypt's previous legislativeelection, on May 24 said: "[President Barack] Obama wants changethat won't make the Egyptian government angry. And in the Egyptiancontext, that means there will be no change". USAID, Washington's main international aid agency, in April2010 said: "The United States is committed to the promotion ofdemocracy and human rights and the development of civil society inEgypt". It said the cuts came as Washington was drawing downnon-military aid to Egypt in general over recent years. USAID has madesimilar cuts in democracy aid to Jordan, another ally of Washington. The new US policy in part reflects a change in focus, with moredevelopment and economic aid to Afghanistan and Pakistan (AfPak). Italso reflects how Obama has moved away from his predecessor George W.Bush's aggressive push to democratise the Greater Middle East(GME). Egypt was the centre-piece of the Bush policy, straining US tieswith Mubarak although by the end of the Bush administration, theAmerican reform push had already seemed to fall by the wayside. In a report released on April 16, the US-based democracy watchdogFreedom House said: The democracy aid cuts for Egypt were "ofparticular concern as the environment there becomes increasinglyrestricted as evidenced by recent crackdowns against politicalactivists, bloggers, and journalists". Egypt had been one of thetop recipients of US foreign aid since it became the first Arab state tosign a peace treaty with Israel in 1979. The aid was as high as $2bn ayear in the past, including $1.3bn in funds for Egypt's military.But since the Bush administration, Washington has been cutting thenon-military part of the package. This year's, like lastyear's, is $1.55bn, including $250m in non-military aid. The changes came at a murky time for Egypt, the Arab world'smost populous country. The recent illness of the 82-year-old Mubarak hasraised questions about whether he will run for yet another term aspresident in 2011. Mubarak does not have a clear successor. Now the internal battle is for control over the Shura Council, theupper house of the Egyptian parliament. On the eve of this advisorybody's mid-term election, Mubarak's National Democratic Party(NDP) and the opposition are vying to make gains at the ballot box, thekey ahead of closely-fought legislative and presidential elections.Created in 1980 by then President Anwar Sadat, the Shura Council at thetime drew little attention. But now, the Shura is one of the mosteffective tools for the Mubarak regime in steering the course forEgyptian politics. This body is so important to the regime that under nocircumstances will the ruling NDP allow its opponents to challenge itsdominance of the Shura. The Shura is headed by Safwat al-Sharif, a keyaide to Mubarak, who is also the secretary-general of the NDP. The NDP fielded 92 candidates for the 88 seats in the Shuraelection which was to be held on June 1. Several secular oppositionparties have decided not to participate, citing doubts about theintegrity of the electoral process or because they could not afford thecost of campaigning. But 13 other parties nominated 45 candidates, whilethe Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Egypt's banned-yet-strongestopposition force, has fielded 14 candidates. Moustafa Mousa, head of the disputed opposition al-Ghad (Tomorrow)Party, was to run in the June 1 election as a step towards standing forpresident in September 2011. Under recent constitutional amendments, political parties wishingto field presidential hopefuls have to be represented in the parliament.Independent presidential contenders are, meanwhile, required to beendorsed by at least 250 members of the parliament and local councils,which are usually dominated by the NDP. Casting doubts over the integrity of the polls, Islamist MP SayedAskar believes that any election held "without complete judicialsupervision" and under the Emergency Law, in force since 1981, isunfair. He says: "The continued detentions of the MuslimBrotherhood members can show how the Shura election as well as thelegislative and presidential elections will be like". The MB, whosemembers run as independents, won a fifth of the seats in the lower houseof parliament in the 2005 election. They are unlikely to make similargains in the legislative vote scheduled for later this year, due to whatthey say is the police's constant crack-downs. Mubarak, in power since 1981, has pledged that the Shura Councilvote will be fair. The Shura Council is composed of 264 members, ofwhich 174 are directly elected. The 88 others are appointed by the headof the state. Under recent constitutional changes, the powers of theShura have been boosted.